Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 May 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
May 27, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 26 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A long duration B7.5
flare occurred at 26/1420 UTC from Region 767 (S08E12). A filament
eruption was associated with this event, followed by a full halo CME
on LASCO imagery. The bulk of the CME, first seen at 26/1506 UTC,
was directed to the south west. The plane of sky speed of the
ejecta was approximately 575 km/s. At the time of issue, a C8 flare
was in progress in this region. New sunspot development between the
leading and trailing spots have increased the size and complexity of
this active region. New Region 768 (S08W48) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 767 has the potential for C-class activity with a small
chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), which
produced three M-flares on its last rotation, is expected to rotate
onto the visible disk on 28 May.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods on
27 and 28 May due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The full halo CME from 26 May is expected to cause active
to minor storm conditions on 29 May.

III. Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 May 090
  • Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/095/100
  • 90 Day Mean 26 May 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 002/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 010/010-015/020-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/40
  • Minor storm 10/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/40/50
  • Minor storm 10/20/30
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.