Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 23 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 736 (N13W92) produced a
C2.6 flare at 23/0934Z as it rotated around the west limb. New
Regions 737 (S07W31) and 738 (S10E10) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
from approximately 365 km/s to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz remained
positive through the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 24 February. On 25 February,
expect quiet to active conditions as a recurrent high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. On 26 February, expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
- IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 23 Feb 085
- Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/012-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/15
