Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the
return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major
flares during its previous transit across the visible disk.
Brightness fluctuations on the northeast limb suggest this region is
still quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a
prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear
to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and
produced occasional B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase
following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at
over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods
on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce
occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
- Class M 15/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Feb 082
- Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 090/100/115
- 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/25
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/40
- Minor storm 05/05/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05