Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 26 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09E11) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area today. No new
regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance of
isolated active conditions at high latitudes on 27 and 28 January.
Minor to major storming is possible on 29 January due to the onset
of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Jan 089
- Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 090/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 109
- V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 004/010-006/015-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/40
- Minor storm 05/05/25
- Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/30
- Minor storm 05/15/40
- Major-severe storm 01/05/20
