Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13E10)
produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z.
Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z. Region 720
has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta
magnetic class. Region 718 has also increased in area to 250
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 is capable of producing multiple
M-class events and possibly an X-class event. Region 718 has also
shown the capability of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased to approximately 560 km/s during the reporting
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
- Class M 85/85/85
- Class X 25/25/25
- Proton 10/10/10
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Jan 130
- Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/140
- 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
