Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor

January 5, 2005

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Though very low, two
events of note occurred. The first was a prolonged B8 flare at
05/0522Z from Region 715 (N04W33). This event had an associated
faint full halo CME. The second event was a large 30 degree filament
eruption from near N01E14. This solar event also resulted in a full
halo CME with an impressive post-CME arcade on SXI and EIT imagery.
Most of the ejecta associated with this CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed. A third faint halo CME was also observed on LASCO
imagery on 04/1254Z. This CME was likely associated with the C7
flare in Region 715 on 04/1113Z. Region 715, a small beta group in
decay, contains the only sunspots on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 715.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but gradually
declined to near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The current high
speed solar wind stream is expected to gradually decline through 06
January. Three different CMEs over the past two days may cause
occasional storm periods.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan