Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Nov 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 27 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0204 UTC from Region 707 (S16E27)
and a C1.5/Sf at 0516 UTC from Region 706 (S07E31). Of the four
spotted regions on the disk, only Region 707 is growing. The rate of
growth in 707 is slow, but the group has some magnetic mixing and is
a beta-gamma magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours (through 28
November) and is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29-30
November.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Nov 110
- Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 016/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
