Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Activity was limited to
occasional B-class activity this period. Several new spots emerged
in Region 700 (N05W27), but other than occasional brightness
fluctuations, the region was quiet. No other significant activity or
changes were noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated low C-class activity is possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high
latitude active periods. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated,
ranging from 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 07/1910Z is nearing an end. The current proton flux is
ranging from 5 to 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The
greater than 2 MeV proton event in progress since 07 November is
expected to end today.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 05/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Nov 096
• Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 095/095/100
• 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 108

• V. Geomagnetic A Indices
• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 023/030
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01