Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

November 8, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M2.3/1N flare occurred
from Region 696 (N08W36) at 08/1549 UTC. Region 696 was also
responsible for several C-flares and maintains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region decayed slightly to 600
millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with the possibility of M-class and isolated X-flares from
Region 696.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storming levels.
Nine hours of severe storm conditions during the period were the
result of almost six hours of Bz at -40 nT from 07/2230 UTC to
08/0420 UTC. This very significant geomagnetic activity was likely
due to a shock arrival associated with a CME from the M9 flare that
occurred on 06 November. The greater than 10 MeV protons began the
period above thresholds, reached a maximum value of 495 pfu at
08/0115 UTC, and ended the period at 60 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The Geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 09 November due
to the arrival of a CME associated with the X2.0 flare observed on
07 November. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 10
November. Quiet to active levels are expected on 11 November.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov