Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Summary For April 8-14 A category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 11 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1719. A category R1 (Minor) radio blackout was observed on 12 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1718. A category S1 to S2 (Minor to Moderate) solar radiation storm was observed on 11 - 12 April due to solar activity from active sunspot Region 1719. Outlook For April 15-21 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0357Z from Region 1993 (N16W51). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar,
09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 06/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2145Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1125Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (08 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 149
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 145/135/130
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 006/005-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 05/35/25