Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Summary For April 8-14 A category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 11 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1719. A category R1 (Minor) radio blackout was observed on 12 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1718. A category S1 to S2 (Minor to Moderate) solar radiation storm was observed on 11 - 12 April due to solar activity from active sunspot Region 1719. Outlook For April 15-21 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0207Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun,
21 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at
18/0841Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2106Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 125
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25