Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 074 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 007/008-014/018-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/40 Minor Storm 05/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/50/65