Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to

21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at

20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three

(22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and

unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of

crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct

Class M    65/65/65

Class X    20/20/20

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           21 Oct 199

Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210

90 Day Mean        21 Oct 135


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  017/026

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  013/015-014/015-013/015


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/30

Minor Storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/35

Major-severe storm    40/40/40

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Dst > -20 nT


-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT


High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT


Dst < -100 nT


ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data

Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.