Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (27 Sep). III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 088 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 009/010-011/018-020/028 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/30 Minor Storm 10/35/40 Major-severe storm 01/10/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/70/75