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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of
particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of
the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space
weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The
increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems
in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems
associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 30/1216Z from Region 2277 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1540Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 159
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/018-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/30
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low: Dst > -20 nT
Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme: Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data
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Space Weather Today from
NOAA's Space Environment Center.