Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 16/1327Z from Region 3017 (N14E66). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic IMF reached 9 nT at 16/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May) and quiet levels on day two (18 May). III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May Class M 45/45/45 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 May 162 Predicted 17 May-19 May 162/160/160 90 Day Mean 16 May 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/008-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/25 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 25/20/30