Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 30/1216Z from Region 2277 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1540Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    25/25/25

Proton     25/25/25

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Jan 159

Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/150

90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  007/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  011/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  014/018-012/015-010/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/40/25

Minor Storm           20/15/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor Storm           25/30/30

Major-severe storm    60/50/30

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.