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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 April 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 22/2043Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (23 Apr), active to minor storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 084
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 033/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 028/040-023/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 45/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 80/65/60
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data