Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 26/1310Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 074
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 075/075/077
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 006/005-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/20