Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to

30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at

30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on

day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares

on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at

30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,

01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of

crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).

 

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    10/05/05

Proton     10/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Oct 140

Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130

90 Day Mean        30 Oct 141

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    35/35/35

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.