Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2014



Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2014


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/1832Z from Region 2171 (S09E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 559 km/s at 19/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/0805Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 19/1530Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22
Sep).


III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green


IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 122
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 131


V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 015/018-008/008-006/005


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 50/20/15

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.