Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar win d speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 17/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 788 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 072
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 072/072/071
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  009/008-007/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/30