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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Summary For April 8-14 A category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 11 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1719. A category R1 (Minor) radio blackout was observed on 12 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1718. A category S1 to S2 (Minor to Moderate) solar radiation storm was observed on 11 - 12 April due to solar activity from active sunspot Region 1719. Outlook For April 15-21 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 April 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/1154Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
448 km/s at 17/1854Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/0528Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1322Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(20 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 179
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 180/180/180
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 008/008-009/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/55/60
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data