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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 August 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
31/1211Z from Region 2149 (N09W63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
473 km/s at 31/2028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1021Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 125
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 009/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data