Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 26/1353Z from Region 2403 (S16W44). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 26/0413Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 526 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 60/55/50
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 126
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 016/016-013/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 30/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/40/30

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.