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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0601Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 09/1239Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/0900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 117
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/008-008/010-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/35
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data