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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of
particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of
the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space
weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The
increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems
in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems
associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at
30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 140
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low: Dst > -20 nT
Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme: Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data
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Space Weather Today from
NOAA's Space Environment Center.