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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 24/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 113
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 011/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data