Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov). III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Oct 080 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-011/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor Storm 05/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/45/30