Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 26/0740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Mar).

 

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Feb 111

Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 110/110/110

90 Day Mean        26 Feb 145

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  009/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  007/008-015/020-016/022

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/40/40

Minor Storm           01/25/25

Major-severe storm    01/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    20/60/60

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.