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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0803Z from Region 2567 (N05E02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 17/0155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 105
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/20/30
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data