Ovation Aurora Model
The aurora is highly correlated with a number of space weather impacts on systems making forecasting the location and intensity of the aurora important.
Satellite navigation (GPS) errors increase. HF radio communication is blocked. And electric power lines receive unwanted extra current. For the last 18 months, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center have been testing the Ovation Prime model, developed at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Lab. Based on the current solar wind conditions upstream of Earth, this model forecasts where and how intense the aurora will be at Earth approximately 30 minutes later.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has transitioned this model into operations thus providing more consistent and reliable products for customers. You can find the new operational Ovation model at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are forecast to begin on 14 February, and G2 (moderate) Storms are forecast for 15 February. This activity is anticipated due to the combined effects of three coronal mass ejections (CMEs); two of which were associated with R1 (minor) solar flares from Region 1974.