Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 13, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/1142Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 13/1536Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Jan). III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 106 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 106/108/110 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-011/014-018/024 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/40/40 Minor Storm 01/30/30 Major-severe storm 01/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/65/70

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