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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 10, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 10/0650Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 102 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 102/105/110 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 094 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20


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