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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, January 9, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0022Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 08/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 08/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan). III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jan 102 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 102/102/105 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 094 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/20


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