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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 23/1344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1093 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov). III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Nov 080 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 080/082/082 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 087 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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