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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 14, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/0134Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 13/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct). III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 083 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 082/080/078 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 006/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/20


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