Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1730Z from Region 2866 (S18E07). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 08/1028Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 277 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep). III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Sep 100 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/008-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/20

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