Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, January 10, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 10/0958Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 210 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 073 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 085 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15

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