Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 29, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 29/0409Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15796 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov). III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 085 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 088/088/082 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 008/008-006/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/30 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/45

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