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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 26/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19940 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Oct, 29 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (30 Oct). III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Oct 082 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/010-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/30/25


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