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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 27, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16736 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (28 Sep, 29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (30 Sep). III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Sep 074 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 027/038-026/038-020/026 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/40 Minor Storm 45/40/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 85/80/75


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