Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 24, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/0853Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep). III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 074 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 013/018-014/016-012/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/40 Minor Storm 20/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/45/60

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