Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, July 26, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 26/0334Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 260 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul). III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 071 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 027/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/20/20

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