Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, July 4, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul). III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jul 070 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 009/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/10/10

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