From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, May 22, 2020
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 22/2021Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1408Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 071
Predicted 23 May-25 May 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 22 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10
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