Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 May 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, May 18, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 18/1750Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 May, 20 May) and quiet levels on day three (21 May). III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 May 070 Predicted 19 May-21 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 May 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 008/008-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/10

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