Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, May 16, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 16/1024Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 May 069 Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 May 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/10/25

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