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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/0427Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb). III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 070 Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10


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