Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 24, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/0648Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1568 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb). III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 070 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 006/005-006/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/25/25

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