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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast23 February 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 23, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 22/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3505 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Feb). III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 070 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 007/008-007/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/35 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/40


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