Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 10, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 09/0448Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 617 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 073 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 073/072/072 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/008-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/25

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