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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, December 2, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 02/0001Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 02/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec). III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Dec 070 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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