From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 28, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 27/2254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached apeak level of 1290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 070
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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