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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 27/0455Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1932 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov). III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Nov 071 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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