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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 7, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 07/0034Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1011 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Nov, 09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Nov 070 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 070/068/068 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/35


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