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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38548 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov). III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 069 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 008/010-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/20/20


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