Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 6, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 05/0625Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3318 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct). III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Oct 068 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/25

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