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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 4, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 04/1531Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5971 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 068 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15


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