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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 5, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 05/0612Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 60084 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep). III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Sep 068 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-007/008-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/25/20


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