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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 May 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 21/0822Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/1049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 May, 24 May). III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 May 068 Predicted 22 May-24 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 21 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15


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