From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, May 20, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 20/1951Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 579 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May). III. Event probabilities 21 May-23 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 May 069 Predicted 21 May-23 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/15
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