From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, May 18, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 18/0802Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/0609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 May, 21 May). III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 May 071 Predicted 19 May-21 May 070/068/068 90 Day Mean 18 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 006/005-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/25 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/25/25
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