From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 11, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 10/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2407 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 Feb). III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 070 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 007/008-012/014-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/25 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 30/35/30 Major-severe storm 25/40/30
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