Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 11, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 10/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2407 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 070
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  007/008-012/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/30

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