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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 7, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 06/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3630 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 070
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  011/015-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/20

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