From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 04/2159Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2005Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (08 Dec). III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Dec 071 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/008-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/25
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