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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 04/1710Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0523Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 069
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  015/020-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/25/25

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