From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 04/1710Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0523Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec). III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Dec 069 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 015/020-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 20/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/25/25
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