From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, December 1, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 01/1916Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/1737Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1554Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 069
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 021/028-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/40/40
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