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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 11, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 10/2352Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35910 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 071
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  009/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/40

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