Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31197 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 070
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20

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