From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 8, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10717 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Oct). III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 069 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 023/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 014/015-011/012-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/35
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